Published on February 28, 2024 in Daily Commercial News by CostructConnect https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/economic/2024/02/global-market-scan-copper-outlook-shows-sunny-skies-ahead      At the end of January, copper prices in London rose on continued supply concerns and hopes for further stimulus measures from China. At the same time, information from the London Mercantile Exchange (LME) indicated a decrease in the stock of copper, resulting in a tailwind for the commodity’s price.  According to Goldman Sachs, 2024 is the year the copper market will be tightest since 2021, as “the market has suffered a supply shock over the past quarter from a series of mine supply downgrades, reducing growth this year by 60 per cent from expectations in mid-2023.” There will likely be a shortfall of copper exceeding 400,000 tons in 2024.  According to Rio Tinto’s most recent quarterly results, the company achieved a three per cent rise in copper equivale...

Stay Cool... Yesterday, the S&P 500 broke the critical level of 4,300 once again. Today, it drifted further down. In our previous posts from the end of January, we wrote about buying the correction and the possibility of the S&P 500 falling further into bear market territory (more than 20% down from the peak) after a rebound in the short-term .  The S&P 500 charts formed  the "head and shoulders" pattern that in 93% of cases results in a bear market . It seems possible that if the S&P 500 does not recover above 4,300 soon, it could drop by another 10%. This will get it to around the 3,800 level. Similarly to the beginning of this year, major contributors to the S&P 500 fall would be formerly "safe haven" Tech stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Google) and shares of the smaller growth companies with a limited visibility of cash flows.  Unfortunately, if investors start running to the doors, the sell-off might bring down share...

Sold above asking...  The Canadian real estate market is due for correction. Recent regulatory measures designed to stabilize or even cool the housing markets have been less than cosmetic. However, inflation and the upcoming increase in interest rates have already pushed mortgage payments up. Six months ago, the lowest 5 years fixed rate was around 1.6%. Today, the same mortgage is about 3%. This upward trend is likely to continue during this year and the next.  For many years, Canadian house prices were going one direction: up! There are reasons to believe that this time it will be different. So what will the shape of the correction be? The burst of the bubble or a deflation? If a deflation, how long it will continue? If a burst, how low prices will go?  The sharp drop seems more likely. The recent increase in real estate prices have been pushed mostly by investors (now owning an estimated 25%). The inflow of new immigrants has been a minor factor. At these price levels,...

Yes! I can communicate with the fossil fuels.. . I am very grateful to the small group of friends and former colleagues who took the time to contribute to the simple poll that we ran on LinkedIn . It looks like this group's ability to forsee the future produced very strong result and made me realize that I should consult with them more often. In investing, any result better than 50% is GOOD! The result clearly shows that the majority of the voters believe that the spike in the oil prices has been temporary. As Igor Putilin, Head of Investment Research at Art Capital (Ukraine) said in the comments, "Friday’s rally was driven more by geopolitics than fundamentals. Geopolitical risks don’t last long."   And VOILA: "Mounting speculation that Iran’s nuclear deal may be revived, potentially paving the way for the removal of U.S. sanctions on the nation’s crude exports, is damping some of the bullish signals. The oil market’s structure weakened markedly on Friday , and one ...

Warning: stock market bears aren't as cute... The S&P 500 technical analysis looks bad. It looks like the chart is forming one of the most dangerous patterns for stock prices. According to centralcharts.com, the statistics of "head and shoulders" patterns is quite scarry. - In 93% of cases, the exit from the head and shoulders pattern is bearish. - In 63% of cases, the price reaches the objective of the head and shoulders pattern when the neck line is broken. - In 96% of cases, the bearish movement continues from the break in the neck line. - In 45% of cases, after exiting, the price makes a pullback in resistance on the neck line of the head and shoulders pattern. SUBSCRIBE  to get the latest blog posts as soon as they hit the wire . This blog does not provide investment advice. Please do your own research and talk to professionals before investing.

What do you mean, no direct flight to Mordor? It has become a consensus that the demand for travel is quickly recovering to pre-pandemic levels. In our previous posts, we talked about the potential recovery of Airlines and Cruises stocks. We also expect online travel companies to benefit from increased domestic and international travel activities BUT... The major players of the industry are Booking Holdings ( BKNG ) and Expedia Group ( EXPE ). These companies also belong to the currently unpopular Technology sector. We do not expect a significant upside for the shares of these companies this year. The "helicopter  money" from the Fed inflated valuations of the Technology sector, especially companies with business models based on online sales. The withdrawal of liquidity already started to deflate the sector and is likely to continue for the rest of 2022. The online travel companies outperformed NASDAQ 100 year-to-date due to the future benefits of reopening. However, their ...

Over the last five days, Bitcoin behaved like the S&P 500 on steroids. Maybe the fact that there are a limited number of Bitcoin that can be issued provides some comfort when investors are facing growing inflation. However, when faced with mounting geopolitical and economic risks, the Crypto cannot compete with safety of good old gold. SUBSCRIBE  to get the latest blog posts as soon as they hit the wire . This blog does not provide investment advice. Please do your own research and talk to professionals before investing.